DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.Comment: Accepted at JBI under the new name: "Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach

Greater than the parts: a review of the information decomposition approach to causal emergence.

Emergence is a profound subject that straddles many scientific disciplines, including the formation of galaxies and how consciousness arises from the collective activity of neurons. Despite the broad interest that exists on this concept, the study of emergence has suffered from a lack of formalisms that could be used to guide discussions and advance theories. Here, we summarize, elaborate on, and extend a recent formal theory of causal emergence based on information decomposition, which is quantifiable and amenable to empirical testing. This theory relates emergence with information about a system's temporal evolution that cannot be obtained from the parts of the system separately. This article provides an accessible but rigorous introduction to the framework, discussing the merits of the approach in various scenarios of interest. We also discuss several interpretation issues and potential misunderstandings, while highlighting the distinctive benefits of this formalism. This article is part of the theme issue 'Emergent phenomena in complex physical and socio-technical systems: from cells to societies'

Sustainable bioethanol production combining biorefinery principles using combined raw materials from wheat undersown with clover-grass

To obtain the best possible net energy balance of the bioethanol production the biomass raw materials used need to be produced with limited use of non-renewable fossil fuels. Intercropping strategies are known to maximize growth and productivity by including more than one species in the crop stand, very often with legumes as one of the components. In the present study clover-grass is undersown in a traditional wheat crop. Thereby, it is possible to increase input of symbiotic fixation of atmospheric nitrogen into the cropping systems and reduce the need for fertilizer applications. Furthermore, when using such wheat and clover-grass mixtures as raw material, addition of urea and other fermentation nutrients produced from fossil fuels can be reduced in the whole ethanol manufacturing chain. Using second generation ethanol technology mixtures of relative proportions of wheat straw and clover-grass (15:85, 50:50, and 85:15) were pretreated by wet oxidation. The results showed that supplementing wheat straw with clover-grass had a positive effect on the ethanol yield in simultaneous saccharification and fermentation experiments, and the effect was more pronounced in inhibitory substrates. The highest ethanol yield (80% of theoretical) was obtained in the experiment with high fraction (85%) of clover-grass. In order to improve the sugar recovery of clover-grass, it should be separated into a green juice (containing free sugars, fructan, amino acids, vitamins and soluble minerals) for direct fermentation and a fibre pulp for pretreatment together with wheat straw. Based on the obtained results a decentralized biorefinery concept for production of biofuel is suggested emphasizing sustainability, localness, and recycling principle

A computational study on altered theta-gamma coupling during learning and phase coding

There is considerable interest in the role of coupling between theta and gamma oscillations in the brain in the context of learning and memory. Here we have used a neural network model which is capable of producing coupling of theta phase to gamma amplitude firstly to explore its ability to reproduce reported learning changes and secondly to memory-span and phase coding effects. The spiking neural network incorporates two kinetically different GABAA receptor-mediated currents to generate both theta and gamma rhythms and we have found that by selective alteration of both NMDA receptors and GABAA,slow receptors it can reproduce learning-related changes in the strength of coupling between theta and gamma either with or without coincident changes in theta amplitude. When the model was used to explore the relationship between theta and gamma oscillations, working memory capacity and phase coding it showed that the potential storage capacity of short term memories, in terms of nested gamma-subcycles, coincides with the maximal theta power. Increasing theta power is also related to the precision of theta phase which functions as a potential timing clock for neuronal firing in the cortex or hippocampus

Parameter Estimation Error Dependency on the Acquisition Protocol in Diffusion Kurtosis Imaging

Mono-exponential kurtosis model is routinely fitted on diffusion weighted, magnetic resonance imaging data to describe non-Gaussian diffusion. Here, the purpose was to optimize acquisitions for this model to minimize the errors in estimating diffusion coefficient and kurtosis. Similar to a previous study, covariance matrix calculations were used, and coefficients of variation in estimating each parameter of this model were calculated. The acquisition parameter, b values, varied in discrete grids to find the optimum ones that minimize the coefficient of variation in estimating the two non-Gaussian parameters. Also, the effect of variation of the target values on the optimized values was investigated. Additionally, the results were benchmarked with Monte Carlo noise simulations. Simple correlations were found between the optimized b values and target values of diffusion and kurtosis. For small target values of the two parameters, there is higher chance of having significant errors; this is caused by maximum b value limits imposed by the scanner than the mathematical bounds. The results here, cover a wide range of parameters D and K so that they could be used in many directionally averaged diffusion weighted cases such as head and neck, prostate, etc